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Bulls and Bears

News/Business. The latest market news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)

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Geico 5, Gary B 4, Ho 4, Citi 3, Todd 3, Ell 3, Maryland 2, Us 2, Greece 2, Jonas 2, Michigan 2, Cbo 2, Obama 2, Julian 2, Gaviscon 2, Toyota 1, Wisconsin 1, Doug 1, Bnda 1, Tok 1,
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  FOX Business    Bulls and Bears    News/Business. The latest market  
   news; the week ahead on Wall Street. (CC)  

    December 9, 2012
    8:00 - 8:30am EST  

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week. >> the 5 p.m. or the show? thank for joining us. >> see you tomorrow. >> brenda: just ashe unemployment rate is dropping, is capitol hill signaling tax heights are coming? add up the signs. a key conservative leaving the nate for the private sector as republicans reportedly cook up a doomsday plan that would give the president the t hikes he wants. so if taxes go up, will jobs
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go down? hi, everyone, i'm brenda buttner, this is bulls and bears, let's get right to it. here they are, the bulls and bears this week. we've got gary b smith, tobin smith. and julian epstein, welcome to everybody. todd, if taxes go up, get ready for that unemployment rate to shoots u, too. >> you've got that right. brenda, not only going to go high, we're looking at hundreds of thousands of jobs eliminated because of higher taxes. you can' you can't simply look at small business owners small business comprise of two-thirds of all jobs created in the country in the last ten years, if you're going to raise that personal income tax, that's going to hit the small business owners they won't have enough to go out and hire and we all have to be prepared because the labor picture is going to get fragile real quick. >> julian, you agree? >> no, and at a certain point on the show and elsewhere we have to stop uttering opinions and using facts.
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the most definitive study done about this, the nonpartisan agency that republicans and democrats agree to be the ultimate authority is the congressional buet office. they looked at this question and they found that raising the top, the rates on the top 2% will have virtually no impact on gdp and virtually no impact on job formation, the republicans in congress didn't like that study. so they asked the crs. congressional research service to review the data and come up with conclusions and guess what, they looked at this and said the same thing, almos no impact on job creation, no impact on gdp formation, almost all of the economists seem to be unanimo about this, that the obama plan. >> let me finish the point. the obama plan finishes the rate on the top 2% will have virtually no impact on job formation. >> i resemble your remark about facts and opinions, we have both on this show. >> let's hear the data. >> brenda: gary b, you go right to it. >> you know, julian has his
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study and you know, the other side has another study, ernst & young-- >> no, they don't. >> the report. >> wait, julian, you've got to let me finish, okay? they have a study saying, raising the taxes on the rich would cost 700,000 jobs. the cbo, which julian likes said that just if we allowed all the bush tax cuts to not expire and the-- the amt, the alternative minimum tax would be addressed, that's 1.8 million jobs, so, no matt how you cut it, even if we just looked anecdotally julian doesn't like. he's a wealthy guy and earnings a lot of of money, ifs' less money to his bottom line nextyear, i guarantee julian will have to cut back on the landsping that he does and probably the guy that drives his car, and all of that other stuff. it just doesn't make sense from where you look at the numbers or whether you're looking anecdotally, it doesn't make sense that people's bottom line will be cuand there will be no jobs lost. there obviously will be jobs--
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>> okay, okay, hold on. >> a huge problem when i don't have someone to. >> julian, hold on, i've got other people to go to. we only tease you because you we like you. jonas, any attempt to cut the debt is going to hurt the economy. >> when you can't fit a driver in a smart car, that's part the of the problem. there are studies that say over million people and other deficits, close the huge deficits might not have a huge effect on the economy, however, if xes across the board and let's not forget the spending cuts that are ought maic in the defense industry, defense industry alone is looking at hundreds of thousands of job cuts next year with nos mandatory cuts go into effect. i'm not saying they are. so it's both cutting and taxing, we're too focus on the tax. bottom line, the government takes it out of the system cutting and raising taxes and the small or deficit.
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that means that people are going to be out of work, almost by definition in the short run. but in the long run it's a healthier economy that doesn't go down the path of greece. if the long run greece would have low unemployment, but they do not, but yes, we're going to go a percent, if it happens the worse case scenario, but in five years we won't be not able to borrow money. >> brenda: julian, you can go ahead and respond. >> first of l, the ernst & young study has been debunked over and ov. and number two, the bush tax cuts, if you let the bh tax cuts. the crs study was a republican study and found the same thing as the cbo. if you let bush tax cuts expire on everybody, yes, you would have negative economic impact. the two staetudies done recentl shows the top two rates, top 2%, virtually no impact. to jonas' point if you raise taxes the lot and cut spending a lot and so
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austerity plan, that would have an impact. democrats were for pouring more money into the compli with stimulus and republicans wanted austerity and jonas' point is an argument against what conservatives were pushing for. >> brenda: all right. toby. >> what's the question? >> driving a smart car. >> and we did a survey of 1500 small business peops more in the 2%, revenue or earnings of more than $500,000. i would say that the actual statistics that we got, that the-- it was going to make on their business was much more about health care costs, obamacare than on the marginal right going up. because the small business person can manipulate that like nobody's business and that's t the advantage of taking risk and being a small business person. but on the obamacare side, we had no, probably 75% of people said that it would affect their hiring and that was a much bigger issuehan just the marginal rates.
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>> todd, in fact, we're sing many polls come out that show that small biness owners right now are starting to cut back, they're not snding as much. >> that's right. look, in t -- in the jobs report for november, if you look, 57% of the jobs created were of the seasonal variety. the low wage workers, so, ing forward, you can only suspect that those jobs will be eventually will end up hitting the unemployment line, but more importantly, small business owners are staying away from hiring right now. for various reasons, lack of demand, they can't access credit and understand the tax implications that they're going to have to face going forward doesn't make a lot of sense to go out and hire. >> brenda: jonas? >> i don'think we should worry about a small increase in taxes and unemployment right. and guarantees a long-term solvency of the nation and the treasury, that's the goal here, should be trying to close the loops in one year then we'll have a very high unemployment rate. if some tax ireases to julian's point, only mild
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increases in unemployment rate. >> brenda: julian? >> lock, tok, the point was thaf obama was reelected, it was tank. when obama took office, everyoneaid the imulus would fail. 2.7. >> what? >> 2.7 gdp right now, so gdp is probably. >> bnda. >>etween positive 11, positive 1 swing. everyone keeps talking how the obama plan isn't going to work and it isn't going to work and the data seems to show the difference, which is to president clinton's point if you want to live like a republican, vote for a democrat, they'll give you better economics. >> bnda: gary b, go ahead. give your best. >> well, you know, julian's very goo at raising the straw man. i don't recall everyone saying the market was going to tank if obama was reelected. to sate that , it didn't tank, that's kind of silly.
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the other thing, every time the tax rate has been tried to stick it to the rich. 91% tax rates during fdr years d failed miserab and they've gone back and ended up lowering the rate. it's such a good idea and look for historical examples where it worked. it hasn't worked. if julian wants so much the clinton tax rates, that's fine, i'll go along with that if we had the clinton era government spending whic we don't. >> brenda: okay. all right, we've got to go. thanks, guys. so, see this last year, it was a union uproar in wisconsin and now we're seeing this. a diffent state, same scene, neil and his gang sayg all taxpayers should be paying attention. that's at the bottom of the hour, but up herefirst, did you hear this? >> our people in an overwhelming supported this president and there ought to be a quid pro quo. >> brenda: a detroit council woman demanding a bailout after voting the president in. guess where the president is heading on monday?
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i'll send you back to bulls and bears, more headlines just 30 minutes away. >> we showed you the votes. now show us the money. >> our people in an overelmingly supported the reelection of this president and there ought to be a quid pro quo a ought to exercise leadership on that. of course, not just that, but why not. >> brenda: why not, huh?
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detroit council wan joanne watson asked for bailout for the cash-strapped city. the president heading there. >> of course not if you want to look up cronyism, and wikipedia, this is cronyism in live television. it blatant. if she feels so blatant she can feel it this way, who are the people not on mv saying texts and messages, dear mr. president, if we bring home the bac you'll bring home the bacon to us? this is an unfortunate example of the realities of this type of political process. >> brendawell, jonas, dn't michigan, didn't detroit already get a bailout. >> yes, it was called t auto bailo. and before the election, unformer. two admistrations that did that. everyone wts a bailout and the president's going to get your votes one way or the other. question is coming up more broadly, right now new jersey
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and an other of states getting a huge one because it s a cast catastrophe. >> and if it's beyond your control and-- >> the case is we voted for you, we get a bailout. >> and on the other side, detroit is in a multi-decade collapse that is beyond the scope, it's almost lik a hurricane. and i'm not saying it's totally insane for nem to get a disproportionate amount-- >> gary b, you le in maryland, should you and maryland be paying for what detroit or michigan is deciding to do with unions and pensns and how they got themselves in this mess in the first place? >> exactly, brenda. i kind of agree with jonas. i'm not sure i'd be so quick bail out cities with national catastrophes. they decided to live there and build there. but jonas it right, a lot of
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cities like detroit are avily unionized. they invested heavily in these gold-plated cadillac-like government pensions as the revenues have dropped off and diminished and detroit is a great example, people leaving the city now for decades. they find they can't pay these pensions. so in a nutshell, they mismanaged their money and now they're coming-- i don't blame the council woman they did help to get president obama elected. look, we did you a solid and unfortunately it's not the right way to go, i don't think anyone wants to bail out detroit for mismanagement. >> brenda: julian, what y you. >> i think we have to define the terms, quid pro quo and bailouare unfortunate terms. i think that jonas made the right point. you have to separate long-term and short-term issues. long-term, the same way that the government rormed
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entitlement, the state has to reform pension programs. and many states and governments are doing that. in the short-term, however, it's another question when you're in an economically very difficult time, if the states and local governments don't get money it forces to raise taxes or increase unempyment both are which are bad for the economy. conservative president bush had three efforts to provide state aid to state and local governments that were suffering during an ecomic downtournament. >> brenda: quickly, julian. >> and supported in the past. >> brenda: todd, what do you think. >> when is it going to end. you bail out detroit and next is harrisburg, pennsylvania. a ng list, doug. why do we have to save detroit? pick your city. i don't think it's right you have somebody out there, man made, blew through their budget, going bankrupt, d't have a strategy for recovery right now except to go hat in hand back to washingn. when you look the at all of that, why is it that i have to, as a taxpayer, continue to
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il out the other cies? it's just not fair and it's not right. >> brenda: got to be the last word there, thanks, guys. well, we all remember this. >> it's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind. >> brenda: do you believe that it's been 40 years since we last stepped on the moon? now, our very own neil cavuto is hosting a fox news special, friday me fly me to the moon, never before firsthand accounts. and live tomorrow at 9 eastern, it's going to be out of this world. soon there may be no place to hide. why uncle sam may soon be eyeing every mile you drive. and w someone here says everyone should be sounding the horn. ♪
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>> forget about black boxes in airplanes. what about black boxes in your cars? and the government asking n to put in every car. desigd to be a safety measure. gary b, you say this could add to a mileage tax? >> absolutely, these things start out as a safety measure and i'm sure that's the intent right now. but you know the government i like this big monolith that just needs revenues as fuel. and it' growing and gross. and the easiest way to get revenues is via data. so, you know,eople say, oh,
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that will never happen. look, the whole rean obamacare might be successful because the irs has the data. that's a going to allow them to collect all of that obamacare revenues. and this is just o step away from mileage tax, i'mure you're going to see it if this goes through. >> jonas, this could lead to safer vehicles, we saw that with toyota and the black box helped them >> it helps them determine if the people pretending they lost control of the car, in fact, could lower your insurance costs and a lot of people get in accidents and pretend like they're not speeding like the governor o new jersey-- former governor. your car has one of these in all likelihood unless you have a junker. i think % of new car or something, and you almost need the government to kind of mandate the standards of what is collected so specific companies don't do what they want to do with the black box and follow some sort of rules. i'm not with technology in cars and as long as they don't
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give you speeding tickets automatically when there are no cops arnd. >> and wait a minute. >> with the technology. >> wait a minute, todd, there's no transparency, no rules, no privacy, guaranteed. isn't this-- >> yeah, you say, it's watching yourvery move and the governnt is going to try to tell everybody, this is going to improve the trancecation putting. don't forget about the bridge collapse on i-35 and now you're talking about all of these bridges and hearing frail they are and government officials say we need to raise money to improve this. it's the fear factor and so we have to be prepared for it. >> julian? >> jonas is right on everything he stated about the safety factor and secoly, idea that you would use this for a gas tax, that's silly since we have a gas tax and third thing is the thing you really have to watch out for. collection of the data to mon advertise it, the kinds of things you buy and where you go. the data you have to have
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strict rules. >> we have that with progressive insurance and the box that tells you where you are and the insurance rate 400 bucks. and they fou they have a 20% safer outcomes, less accidents tore people who put them in their cars than people who don't. >> go ahead, gary, what? >> i said toby probably also like red light cameras because they're for safety reasons and now, they can't get rid of it-- >> okay, now what? jonas never speeds. i can't believe it. thanks, guys. and thanks to julian for joing us. all right. >> thanks for having me, and you're driving me home, right. absolutely, sir, be rig there. >> brenda: all right, guys. all of this talk of tax hikes getting you down? ell, we have a name that ell, we have a name that could pic you and ...so as you can see, geico's customer satisfaction is at 97%.
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ell, we have a name that could pic you and ...so as you can see, geico's customer smmmm tasty. is at 97%. and cut! very good. people are always asking me how we make these geico adverts. so wre taking you behind the scenes. this coffee cup, for example, is computer animated. it's not real. geico's customer satisfaction is quite real though. this computer-animated coffee tastes dreadful.
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geico. 15 minutes could sa you 15 % or more on car insurance. someone get me a latte will ya, please?
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. >> clayton: i6789 >> predictions. >> making me want to drink, i doubt i'm alone. >> and brown foreman. >> bull or bear on jack. >> i'm bearish. >> brenda: your prediction. i like mattel, i think it's going to have a great christmas and i own the stock by the way, i think all-time high in february of next year. >> brenda: toby, bull or bear. >> coal in your stocking. >> brenda: what do you like